Can Trump Broker Peace in Ukraine? Inside the High-Stakes Talks With Zelenskiy

Published: 4/26/2025

Introduction

As the war in Ukraine grinds into its third devastating year, global pressure to find a diplomatic solution is intensifying.
This weekend, former U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy are scheduled for another round of high-stakes talks aimed at brokering a potential peace agreement.

The world is watching closely.
Could Trump's intervention finally end the bloodshed — or will the proposed deals come at a cost too high for Ukraine to bear?

In this article, we dive into the current peace plan discussions, the potential outcomes, and why critics warn that the negotiations could reshape not only Ukraine’s future, but the global balance of power itself.

The Context: Why Now?

Stalemate on the Battlefield

Despite heroic resistance by Ukrainian forces and extensive Western military support, the frontlines have largely stabilized.
Neither side appears able to deliver a decisive military victory in the near term.

• Russia controls significant portions of eastern and southern Ukraine.
• Ukraine has launched counteroffensives but faces attrition challenges and ammunition shortages.
• NATO Allies are grappling with political fatigue and domestic opposition to ongoing aid.

The war has become a grinding war of attrition — costly for both sides, and increasingly destabilizing for the global economy.

Trump’s Return to the Spotlight

Donald Trump, gearing up for a potential return to the White House in 2025, has seized on the Ukraine conflict as a key campaign issue.
He has repeatedly claimed he could "end the war in 24 hours" through aggressive diplomacy.

Critics argue that his approach favors swift cessation of hostilities — possibly at the expense of Ukrainian sovereignty.

Inside the Peace Talks

According to sources close to the negotiations, Trump’s team is pushing a peace framework that includes:

• Immediate ceasefire on all fronts.
• Recognition of Russia’s de facto control over parts of Eastern Ukraine.
• Negotiations over Crimea deferred to a future date.
• Security guarantees for Ukraine — but without immediate NATO membership.
• Partial lifting of Western sanctions on Russia contingent on compliance.

Zelenskiy has signaled openness to discussions but remains deeply wary of any deal that would:

• Reward Russian aggression.
• Undermine Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
• Leave Ukraine without ironclad security guarantees.

Why Critics Are Worried

1. Risk of Undermining Sovereignty

Ceding territory under pressure could set a dangerous precedent internationally, emboldening other authoritarian regimes to use military force to achieve political goals.

2. Weak Security Guarantees

Skeptics fear that without NATO membership or a strong, enforceable security pact, Ukraine would remain vulnerable to future Russian aggression.

3. Dividing the West

Trump's approach may divide Western allies, with some European nations pushing for peace at almost any cost, while others — notably Poland and the Baltics — insist on full Ukrainian sovereignty.

4. Rewarding Putin

By effectively legitimizing territorial gains obtained through invasion, any deal risks handing Vladimir Putin a strategic victory, further destabilizing Eastern Europe.

What Ukraine Wants

President Zelenskiy has repeatedly outlined Ukraine’s minimum demands for any peace settlement:

• Full withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukrainian territory.
• Restoration of Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders, including Crimea.
• War crimes accountability for Russian actions.
• Binding international security guarantees to prevent future invasions.

Zelenskiy knows he cannot agree to a settlement that would be seen domestically as a capitulation.
Public opinion in Ukraine remains overwhelmingly against any territorial concessions.

What Trump Wants

Trump's strategic goals appear focused on:

• Ending the war quickly to demonstrate diplomatic prowess.
• Reducing U.S. financial and military commitments overseas.
• Positioning himself as a global dealmaker ahead of the U.S. election.
• Curbing Russia’s further military adventures — but without necessarily punishing its past actions.

To achieve these aims, Trump seems willing to consider a compromise that prioritizes cessation of hostilities over full Ukrainian demands.

The Risks of a Rushed Deal

Speed may be politically attractive, but it carries enormous risks:

RiskExplanationFrozen ConflictWithout a full resolution, Ukraine could become another "frozen conflict" zone like Transnistria or Donbas pre-2022.Weak EnforcementEnforcement of ceasefires and terms would be extremely difficult without robust multinational guarantees.Russian RearmamentA pause could allow Russia to regroup, rearm, and launch new offensives later.Loss of International NormsAccepting changes to borders by force could destabilize global norms against territorial conquest.

Global Implications

The outcome of these peace talks will have implications far beyond Ukraine:

• NATO’s Credibility:
  Will NATO members stand by their commitments, or fracture under political pressure?
• China’s Calculations:
  Beijing is watching closely; a perceived Western weakness may embolden Chinese moves in Taiwan.
• Global Markets:
  Ending the war could stabilize energy and grain markets — but a flawed deal could spark longer-term volatility.
• Democracy vs. Autocracy:
  The conflict has become a broader test of whether democratic nations can effectively resist authoritarian aggression.

Scenarios to Watch

Scenario 1: Quick Ceasefire, Unstable Peace

• Ceasefire achieved through concessions.
• Sporadic fighting continues under the surface.
• Ukraine left vulnerable; Western alliances strained.

Scenario 2: Stalemate Continues

• Talks collapse over unacceptable terms.
• War grinds on through 2025.
• Western support gradually erodes amid war fatigue.

Scenario 3: Durable Peace with Strong Guarantees

• Trump brokers a deal with real enforcement mechanisms.
• Ukraine retains most of its territory.
• Russia faces consequences for non-compliance.

What Traders and Investors Need to Know

Markets are extremely sensitive to Ukraine headlines.
A credible peace plan could cause:

• Sharp fall in oil prices.
• Relief rally in European equities.
• Strengthening of the euro and emerging market currencies.
• Drop in defense sector stocks.

Conversely, failure of the talks — or a weak, unenforceable peace — could increase volatility in commodity and bond markets.

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Final Thoughts: High Risk, High Reward

Trump’s diplomatic foray into Ukraine peace negotiations is a high-risk, high-reward gambit.
Success could cement his image as a master dealmaker; failure could destabilize Europe further.

For Ukraine, the stakes are even higher: the future of its sovereignty, democracy, and national survival may hinge on the outcome.

As talks continue, the world watches — and waits.